Border Deaths - the Mediterranean and beyond
The IOM has documented around 35,000 deaths in the Mediterranean since 2014. The Italian Red Cross estimates the real figure at between 100,000 and 200,000. The difference is not a statistical dispute — it is the measure of what cannot be counted: the countless boats that capsized with no survivors, no witnesses, no record. People who disappeared without ever being registered.
Every number in these statistics represents a person. These are minimum estimates, the actual toll is almost certainly far higher.
The IOM figures themselves underline this: in 2025 alone, at least 1,500 additional people were reported missing at sea but could not be verified due to limited access to search-and-rescue information. At least 270 human remains washed ashore on Mediterranean coasts without being linked to any known shipwreck.
Documented deaths and disappearances in the Mediterranean (IOM Missing Migrants Project; minimum estimates)
- 2014: 3,279
- 2015: 3,771
- 2016: 5,096 — highest annual total on record
- 2017: 3,139
- 2018: 2,299
- 2019: 1,885
- 2020: 1,544
- 2021: 2,048
- 2022: 2,411
- 2023: 3,155
- 2024: 2,452
- 2025: 2,185
- 2026: 990 documented by early April — January is the deadliest month on record since IOM began collecting data in 2014. By early April, at least 990 deaths had been recorded across the Mediterranean — 765 of them on the Central Mediterranean route alone, an increase of over 150 percent compared to the same period in 2025.
That last figure demands closer attention. In January 2026, fewer than 1,500 people arrived by sea in Italy — compared to around 3,500 in January 2015. The death rate per crossing has not declined. It has increased. Fewer people reaching Europe. More of them are dying.
But even all this is an incomplete picture. The figures above count only those who die at sea on the way north. They do not count those who die during violent interceptions by the Libyan Coast Guard. They do not count those who die in Libyan detention centres.
The IOM recorded over 1,000 migrant deaths and disappearances in Libya in 2024 alone. In 2024, more than 100 bodies were exhumed from mass graves in Libya. A 2026 UN Human Rights Office report covering 2024–2025 documented how migrants were routinely subjected to slavery, torture, forced labour, forced prostitution and other forms of sexual violence — in conditions described as an "exploitative model that has become 'business as usual' — a brutal and normalised reality."
Between January 2018 and September 2025, at least 145,437 people were intercepted at sea and forcibly returned to Libya. The number of migrants held in Libyan detention centres rose from 725,304 in 2024 to 867,055 in 2025. Interceptions have continued into 2026, with 507 recorded in a single week in February, 190 in late March, and 708 in early April.
What happened to them afterwards is, by official account, largely unrecorded. What we know, we know because of the tireless and often self-endangering work of the people who lived through it — survivors who continue to bear witness, to document, and to testify at great personal risk. Organisations like Refugees in Libya are indispensable to any understanding of the scale of suffering and injustice that the official statistics cannot — or will not — capture.
The declining number of arrivals in Europe is not evidence that fewer people are dying. It is evidence that the system of interception, detention and disappearance has become more effective and more deadly while remaining largely invisible to the statistics cited in European political debate.
Documented deaths and disappearances: Atlantic Route (West Africa to Canary Islands) (Ca-minando Fronteras)
- 2019: 365
- 2020: 1851
- 2021: 4016
- 2022: 1784
- 2023: 6007
- 2024: 9757
- 2025: 11906
The Atlantic route is particularly poorly documented. Boats capsize or drift off course with no survivors, often far from any coast. Caminando Fronteras, which collects data through survivor testimonies and community networks in countries of origin, consistently records death tolls many times higher than the IOM. The gap between the two figures is not a statistical dispute: it is a measure of what remains invisible.
The Sahara route
More people are estimated to cross the Sahara Desert than the Mediterranean Sea and deaths in the desert are presumed to be double those at sea. Between January 2020 and May 2024, 1,180 deaths were documented in the Sahara, while approximately 7,115 people died or went missing in the Mediterranean during the same period. Due to the remoteness of the routes and the absence of media coverage, the actual figures are believed to severely underrepresent the reality.
Niger — Europe's Border in the Sahara
The EU's strategy of externalising its borders did not stop at the Mediterranean. In 2015, at the height of what European politicians called the "migration crisis," Niger — one of the world's poorest countries, heavily dependent on international aid — was pressured into passing Law 2015-36, which forbade drivers from transporting migrants northward from Agadez towards Libya and Algeria.
Before the law's enforcement, migration was an integral part of daily life in the Agadez region. Transport, accommodation, food — entire local economies had grown around the movement of people through this ancient crossroads of the Sahara. Migration was not a criminal enterprise; it was a resilience strategy, essential to survival in a region with few economic alternatives. Drivers were not smugglers. They were a normal part of a normal economy.
The law destroyed this. Drivers had their vehicles confiscated and faced charges of human trafficking. Promised alternative support never materialised. Large parts of the population became unemployed overnight.
And the dying began. Forced onto unofficial, remote desert routes to avoid police checkpoints, people paid more, trusted less, and died in greater numbers. Deaths in the Sahara increased sixfold between 2015 and 2017. Testimonies from survivors document what this meant: "No water, no water. My body was dead but it kept on walking. I could see the souls of my ancestors, like angels. I was really almost dead. In Niger you pay for your death."
The EU funded this. Through the Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, Niger received €247.5 million — the largest single-country allocation. The EU's Migration Platform in Niger was led by the head of the EU delegation. Civil society organisations consistently noted that invited participants were selected based on their alignment with European donor interests.
The IOM, meanwhile, ran transit centres where rescued desert migrants were offered "voluntary return" — with multiple indications that return was presented as the only option and that subsequent support in countries of origin was rarely delivered.
The case of Niger, as the mEUterei collective writes, "clearly demonstrates how the Global North is still exploiting dependencies created during colonisation to pursue its own economic interests under the mantle of 'development cooperation' and at the same time to ward off migration at any cost."
In November 2023, Niger's military junta repealed the law. The EU expressed alarm. Residents of Agadez celebrated.
Source
mEUterei Authors' Collective: "Borders of Violence — The EU's Undeclared War on Refugees", Assoziation A, 2022, pp. 149–156 — Chapter: "Niger – Europe's Deadly Frontiers in the Sahara" assoziation-a.de/dokumente/mEUterei_Borders_of_Violence.pdf
UNITED List of Refugee Deaths
The UNITED network has been documenting the fatal consequences of Fortress Europe since 1993 — two decades before the IOM began systematic tracking. Between 1993 and 2025, the list records over 66,519 deaths attributable to border militarisation, asylum laws, detention policies and deportations: not only drownings, but stowaways suffocating in trucks, people dying in detention, people taking their own lives after years of asylum procedures.
The list makes one thing clear: the dying did not begin in 2014. It has a thirty-year history — and a political cause.
Sources
IOM Missing Migrants Project
https://www.refugeesinlibya.org
Mediterranean migrant deaths mounting towards 1,000 in 2026 –The International Organization for Migration laments one of the deadliest starts to a year since record keeping began.
Zens & Sigman (2026) – Probabilistic Estimation of Hidden Migrant Fatalities Along the Central Mediterranean Route, arXiv:2603.19986
https://caminandofronteras.org/en/monitoreo/monitoring-the-right-to-life-2025/ –
IOM Germany, 2026
SOS Méditerranée, June 2025: "No Money, No Freedom: Torture and Extortion of Migrants in Libya"
UN OHCHR / UNSMIL, Business as Usual: Human Rights Violations and Abuses against Migrants, Asylum-Seekers, and Refugees in Libya